How PayPal Could Double From Here



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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I’m an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I’ve learned, where I have had success, and where I’ve had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call “compounders”. I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on YouTube full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances.

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34 thoughts on “How PayPal Could Double From Here”

  1. Easily one of the best analysis pieces on Youtube about PYPL. Only thing i didnt agree with is the part about "buying growth".

    Buybacks are great, but only help investors if the price is undervalued, not just if they reduce float and increase per share metrics. Most sophisticated investors adjust metrics and models based on enterprise value. If a company trades cash for treasury stock, and the stock isnt fair priced or under intrinsic value, its EV/FCF would essentially remain the same.

    Dont get me wrong, im a huge fan of buybacks, i love shareholder return, but because it shows that cash generated is being given back to shareholders, and not necessarily because of per share metrics being increased.

    PYPL has one of the nest shareholder returns out there right now, generating plenty of cash and reduced outstanding sjares by 6.1% from Oct 2022 to Oct 2023. That may jump to 7.9% if prices stay at this level and the board authorizes another 5B buyback regime. In that regard, it reminds me alot of AAPL in 2016. Hit with downgrades and slowing/stagnant growth, starting to focus more on reducing costs and returning money to shareholders. Its fighting an uphill battle though

  2. Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them. Well, at least my advisor does too, jokingly.

  3. Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios this 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?

  4. Would you ever think of looking at Block (SQ) – It has also fallen just like Paypal and another FinTech company that has been put through the wringer recently

  5. When you buy visa and Mastercard you are paying a premium 35-40 P/E, compared to Paypal trading at a Forward P/E of 10 with 5 billion in stock buyback about to take place all while still growing their Braintree business globally by 30% YOY. Currently. PayPal's revenue is traveling in the opposite direction as their stock price, which is very very unusual opportunity.

  6. Paypal is going to trim the fat in 2024 and 2025 while doing share buybacks using FCF in 2023 and beyond my guess is its going to be a long gruesome turnaround but its going to be a good 5 years or more before we see 250$ a share . I think Paypal is going to be here a long time .

  7. We live in a capitalist economy, and it is quite surprising how many people don’t understand how financial markets work. The biggest risk of all is not having any risk in your investment portfolio. I try to stay at least 50:50., it has been successful for me I can strongly recommend it.

  8. As a user of Paypal, I prefer not to use it as their fees are super high. I have found alternative cheaper solutions. I would assume that many other users will either migrate away from Paypal or Paypal will need to reduce their fees. None of these bode well for price appreciation. This means that the fundamental future is not so bright, offset slightly by a growing market.

  9. I am new to the stock market. Every stock that I bought so far, I was out of luck because I bought them when they were expensive. I feel I missed out on all the stock opportunities so far for the tech stocks.I believe having 275K yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a FA) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and losing all the good opportunities.

  10. Don't forget when ebay broke off with paypal …and then 2 years ago when China let Paypal in…the only U.S. financial institution that they've ever let in…they wanted the data and Paypal sold their sole…. I will never buy or use Paypal again

  11. Great breakdown on PayPal. There’s certainly inherent risks with it, but also some upside potential. I hold some shares of it but I’m not expecting anything over the moon in regards to expected returns. Hence why I will trade out of it as share price recovers. Good luck to anyone holding PayPal! 🙌🏻

  12. If X becomes wechat couldn’t it displace paypal? The bear case isn’t no growth but loosing market share and having no way to compete that doesn’t burn up the remaining cashflow. Stock buybacks mean they see nothing worth improving. Essentially doubling down on the current offering and hoping no one can challenge them

  13. Joseph, I have signed up for Qualtrim but am yet to subscribe. I want to try the product. However, after log in, data does not load even after waiting for several minutes.

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